Since 1980, Texas has voted for the Republican candidate in each Presidential Election.
Since 1994, Texas has had a Republican Governor and kept both U.S. Senate seats filled with Republican candidates. With 38 Electoral College votes and a population of 28.3 million – the political swing in Texas has a large impact across the country.
There have been many efforts over the past 30 years to gain some BLUE momentum in Texas – remember Wendy Davis? Each effort fell short. During the 2018 Midterm Elections, Texas saw voter turnout hit record levels – now called the Beto effect. In the 30 counties with the most registered voters, Texas saw a 78% increase in voter turnout during the 2018 Midterm Election in comparison to the 2012 Midterm Elections (Texas Tribune, 2018).
During the 2018 Midterm Election, even with a overall loss, Texas saw a dramatic BLUE WAVE.
FIRST, LET'S SET THE RECORD STRAIGHT
THERE WAS A BLUE WAVE IN 2018!
Even if we didn't flip that many seats. Let me show you.
Here we compare the 2016 Presedential Election results by COUNTY in Texas to the 2018 Midterm Election results.
Click back and forth between the 2016 and 2018 layers to see the transition.
Presented like this, there is no blue wave. It looks pretty depressing.
If we continue to look at the data in this format, democrats only gained one county overall and flipped four counties in total. When comparing that to the 254 counties in Texas, you do not see a blue wave.
BUTTTTT stick with me.
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK WITH ME
Texas saw record voter turnout in 2018 - just because we didnt flip counties, doesn't mean we didnt make progress.
So, what I've done it take a look at the percent lead by party in each county in 2016 and 2018.
From there, I found the difference in that lead from 2016 to 2018. I denote that as "Percent Change by Party".
That change is represented on the map to the left. AND HERE WE SEE THE BLUE WAVE.
THE RESULTS:
TOTAL # OF TEXAS COUNTIES: 254
# OF TEXAS COUNTIES THAT SWUNG BLUE: 154
# OF TEXAS COUNTIES THAT SWUNG RED: 54
# OF COUNTIES THAT DID NOT CHANGE: 46
